Possible EU Council presidents

By Shada Islam

Published 2 days ago

Helle Thorning-Schmidt

IF you’ve been wondering about Europe’s quasi-silence during the awful 2014 summer of death and violence, take heart: you are not alone.

Most of the world, including European Union insiders, finds it difficult to understand just how and why the 28-nation bloc, given its much-touted and ambitious global agenda, has managed to creep into a dark and silent corner on world affairs through most of July and August.

Yes, of course the summer vacation is a sacrosanct European “value”. Hard-working EU leaders, ministers and senior officials need a break from the daily rough and tumble of EU-policymaking.

They need to recharge their batteries, spend time with friends and family and gain a fresh perspective on work and life.

And yet. There’s something vaguely sad and anachronistic about Europe’s four-week long summer vacation. Especially in a world where war, conflict and violence appear to have become a tragic daily reality.

While Europe’s top policymakers took to the beaches and mountain retreats, Israel did not stop its Gaza offensive. The Islamic State continued to torture, kill and expand into Iraq. Libya remained mired in conflict and violence. Russia and Ukraine quarreled belligerently.

Europe’s disconnect from the insecurity and violence surrounding it is partly the result of policymakers’ summer breaks but partly also caused by an unfortunate reality: the EU today is, for all practical purposes, rudderless.

Elections in May have led to the renewal of the European Parliament. As a result, there is an army of new and often untested MEPs (Members in the European Parliament) around town. More significantly, the entire European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, is up for renewal.

The Commission’s president-elect, Jean-Claude Juncker, a former prime minister of Luxembourg, was selected in July by EU leaders after much acrimony but attempts to agree on the list of 27 men and (some) women who will be in the new Commission have so far been sadly unsuccessful.

That’s not so surprising given the geographical basis, political leanings and gender criteria that have to be taken into account. For example, you need the right balance in the Commission between north and south, east and west, rich and poor, conservative and left-leaning, male and female.

There are hopes that an EU summit in Brussels on August 30 will result in agreement on the next president of the EU Council and a new EU foreign policy chief. It’s not yet clear if that will happen — but even if decisions are taken, it may take another month before there’s a final list of new Commissioners. And once they are appointed, the European Parliament will hold its own hearings to ensure no unsavoury characters have sneaked through the net.

So who is set to replace Belgium’s Herman Van Rompuy as the next EU Council president? The list keeps changing but the apparent favourite is the Danish Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, despite her protests that she doesn’t want the job. Valdis Dombrovskis, a former prime minister of Latvia, has some supporters. Britain is pressing for the appointment of Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister. The name of former Irish prime minister Enda Kenny has been mentioned.

The official contenders for the role of EU foreign policy chief at the moment are Bulgaria’s Kristalian Georgieva, the current Humanitarian Aid Commissioner, from the centre-right European People’s Party, Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski (also from the EPP); and Sikorski’s Italian counterpart Federica Mogherini, from the Party of European Socialists.

Recent reports appear to favour Mogherini’s appointment although the young Italian foreign minister is widely believe to be inexperienced, lacking gravitas and is accused of being too soft on Russia.

While these vexed dilemmas take up time and space at the EU-level, what have some of the EU’s key member states been up to this summer? Britain is of course preparing for a knife-edge referendum on Scottish independence amid ongoing acrimony over whether or not Britain should stay in the EU.

France has just witnessed a government reshuffle with the unpopular President Francois Hollande booting out three ministers believed to be overly critical of his pro-business economic policy. Politicians in Spain, Italy and Greece remain entangled in domestic political and economic concerns.

Which brings us to Germany, the EU’s largest and most powerful economy. Interestingly, Berlin appears to be the most alert of all the 28 countries. Chancellor Angela Merkel has been stepping up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin and has taken a leading role in pushing Moscow and Kiev to talks. Germany is also considering arming Iraqi Kurds.

While Germany’s pro-active foreign policy stance is heartening, it does not compensate for the EU’s overall paralysis.

As Europe’s star dims and its hopes of playing a stronger and more credible regional and global role fade, rebuilding Europe’s relevance and credibility following this summer of silence will not be easy.

Certain key issues need closer scrutiny. EU policymakers need to grapple with the new unpleasant realities of a breakdown in the post-World War order on their eastern flank and the surge in violence in the Middle East and the impact of this insecurity on Europe.

While Europe’s most-modern attachment to soft power, diplomacy and multilateralism have stood it well during the last decades, can such a stance survive in an increasingly unstable and volatile world?

How ready is the EU need to forge a more muscular approach? And how easy will it be to make such a policy U-turn at a time of falling European defence budgets and amid continuing public wariness of getting involved in foreign conflicts?

For the moment, these and other questions remain on the back-burner as the EU struggles to agree on a new line-up of top jobs. Europe’s disconnect, however, needs to be tackled before it’s too late.